AllodialFunding plan

Allodial funding plan · 30 September 2026

$7.5M, raised in two closes.

The first close buys the proof. The second puts it to work.

See the two closes How the numbers were built

The ask

Two closes, with a gate between them.

About $4.0M carries months 1 to 10: certification, the benchmark, the 90-day letter-of-intent campaign and the delivery platform. About $3.5M, priced once the gate is passed, carries months 11 to 24 and installs the first customers, from month 13. Before then, shadow-mode trials run on buyers' own past cases. Peak cumulative need is $7.13Me in month 18, with no implementation fee, so the figures are conservative.

The two closes on a 24-month timelineFirst close, about $4.0M, months 1 to 10. Gate between them: a certified machine, published benchmarks, signed letters of intent from the campaign. Second close, about $3.5M, months 11 to 24. The $500k sprint deploys in month 4; certification completes in month 8; the first customer is installed in month 13; 6 are installed by month 24.First close · $4.0MMonths 1 to 10Second close · $3.5MMonths 11 to 2414810131824Sprint, month 4Certified, month 8First install, month 136 installedGateThe two closes on a 24-month timelineFirst close, about $4.0M, months 1 to 10. Gate between them: a certified machine, published benchmarks, signed letters of intent from the campaign. Second close, about $3.5M, months 11 to 24. The $500k sprint deploys in month 4; certification completes in month 8; the first customer is installed in month 13; 6 are installed by month 24.First close · $4.0MMonths 1 to 10Second close · $3.5MMonths 11 to 2416121824Sprint, month 4Certified, month 8First install, month 136 installedGate

First close · months 1 to 10

~$4.0M

$3.80M of spend plus a $0.20M buffere

  • Certification and first build$0.85M
  • Heat-recovery site, first phase$0.18M
  • The LOI campaign, contract AE and pipeline support$1.00M
  • Delivery platform and first order$0.56M
  • People and operations$0.96M
  • Contingency, including buffer$0.45M

Line items, roundedr$4.00M

The gate

  1. A certified machine
  2. Published benchmarks
  3. Signed letters of intent from the campaign

The second close is priced after those exist.

Second close · months 11 to 24

~$3.5M

$3.22M of spend plus a $0.28M reservee

  • Installing customers$0.51M
  • Sales, channel and pipeline$1.12M
  • Heat-recovery site completion$0.07M
  • People and operations$1.34M
  • Contingency and reserve$0.45M

Line items, roundedr$3.49M

Line items and shares: 08-Funding-Ask-and-Deck-Slides_rev1.md, section 2. Milestones on the timeline: Allodial-Funding-Scenarios-Model_rev8.xlsx, Ladder, $B.

Where the $7.5M goes

  • 31%People and operations
  • 28%Go-to-market and sales
  • 15%Product and certification
  • 14%Delivery and working capital
  • 12%Contingency and reserve

Three levels

Each level buys something the one below cannot.

The model was run at $2M, $6M and $20M. None of the three nominal amounts funds its own plan, so each is right-sized: $2.5M for proof, $7.5M to month 24, $22M for 36 months. The middle one is the plan. Each card's cushion is the right-sized raise less the deepest point of cumulative cash within that level's own horizon.

Implementation fee per customer

$A · Proof

$2.5M

Right-sized from a nominal $2M

The box works, is certified, and one customer runs it.

Signed LOIs
1 to 2 Tier A from a $50k channel testf
Installed, month 24
1 customer, 3 boxese
Installed, month 36
1 customere
Service run rate
$45k a year at month 24e
Core team
3 people
Runway
18-month plan, lasts about 19 months
Cushion over 18 months
+$151k
Need to month 24
$2.81M
Need to month 36
$3.72M

Certification, a published benchmark, one reference site live by about month 12, and the pre-raise test data. A bridge to the next round, with no campaign money.

$B · The plan

The plan

$7.5M

Right-sized from a nominal $6M

Buyers sign, and we can deliver to several at once.

Signed LOIs
8 to 10 Tier A and about 25 Tier B from the $500k sprintf
Installed, month 24
6 customers, 27 boxese
Installed, month 36
8 customerse
Service run rate
$333k a year at month 24e
Core team
6 people plus a contract AE
Runway
24-month plan, lasts about 28 months
Cushion over 24 months
+$366k
Need to month 24
$7.13M
Need to month 36
$8.39M

The sprint's signed letters, 6 installed customers in 3 states, and a Series A raised on installed revenue. Grid and mesh R&D stay on the roadmap.

$C · Full build

$22M

Right-sized from a nominal $20M

The full thesis: grid, mesh and heat, at national scale.

Signed LOIs
The sprint plus continuous acquisitionf
Installed, month 24
13 customers, 63 boxese
Installed, month 36
21 customerse
Service run rate
$753k a year at month 24e
Core team
12 people plus a contract AE
Runway
36-month plan, lasts about 36 months
Cushion over 36 months
($217k)
Need to month 24
$19.3M
Need to month 36
$22.2M

All four Answer Sheet items and national reach. The only level at which Allodial becomes a grid-flexibility and mesh company rather than an appliance vendor.

Need is the lowest point of cumulative cash. Runway counts the months before cumulative need passes the right-sized raise. A negative cushion is shown in parentheses. The model collects the implementation fee 2 months after each install; the $90k case is computed the same way.

Cushion against the originally modelled $2M / $6M / $20M, over 36 months: $2M: ($1.72M); $6M: ($2.39M); $20M: ($2.22M).

Cumulative cash needed, 36 months

Cumulative cash needed, three levels, 36 monthsCumulative cash needed over 36 months, before implementation fees unless the fee toggle is changed. $A: $2.81M by month 24 and $3.72M by month 36, against a right-sized raise of $2.50M; $B: $7.13M by month 24 and $8.39M by month 36, against a right-sized raise of $7.50M; $C: $19.3M by month 24 and $22.2M by month 36, against a right-sized raise of $22.0M.$0$4M$8M$12M$16M$20M$24MMonth 161218243036$2.5M raise$7.5M raise$22.0M raise$A $3.7M$B $8.4M$C $22.2MCumulative cash needed, three levels, 36 monthsCumulative cash needed over 36 months, before implementation fees unless the fee toggle is changed. $A: $2.81M by month 24 and $3.72M by month 36, against a right-sized raise of $2.50M; $B: $7.13M by month 24 and $8.39M by month 36, against a right-sized raise of $7.50M; $C: $19.3M by month 24 and $22.2M by month 36, against a right-sized raise of $22.0M.$0$8M$16M$24MMonth 1122436$2.5M raise$7.5M raise$22.0M raise$A $3.7M$B $8.4M$C $22.2M

Before implementation fees unless the toggle above says otherwise. Delivery and hardware cash start 8 months after close, once certification is done and sprint letters begin converting.

What each level spends over 36 months

Use of funds over 36 months by level
36-month use of funds$A · $2.5M$B · $7.5M$C · $22M
Core team$1.35M$3.02M$6.91M
G&A$216k$432k$1.08M
Product gates and R&D$850k$1.10M$4.60M
Marketing and acquisition$50k$850k$3.65M
Contract AENone$510k$510k
Sprint pipeline carrying costNone$664k$664k
Contingency$247k$541k$1.62M
Delivery, hardware and service net$974k$879k$2.09M
Channel cost$35k$386k$1.09M
Total, fee $0$3.72M$8.39M$22.2M

All figures: Allodial-Funding-Scenarios-Model_rev8.xlsx, Ladder summary. Level descriptions: Allodial-Investment-Options_rev2.md.

Who buys

Research computing, county human services and credit unions lead.

21 US segments were profiled and scored on motive, ability to pay, tolerance for an early product, the chance of a signed letter inside 90 days, and reference value. The market is not the constraint; capacity to sell and deliver is.

The top eight by fit score

Top eight segments by fit score
RankSegmentFit scoreRoleWhy
1Research universities (R1 and R2) In the sprint4.15LeadCan run the box, tolerate an early product, and research computing directors can sign fast.
2Health systems4.10Lead (once hardened)Strongest motive and money; security review makes a 90-day Tier A letter hard, so the sprint aims for Tier B.
3County human services, 10 county-run SNAP states In the sprint3.70LeadThe SNAP admin cost shift lands on their budget, and the signer can act inside a quarter.
4Cities over 50k In the sprint3.65ScaleAn IT department and a building with a heat load; council approval is the gate above threshold.
5Credit unions over $500M In the sprint3.65ScalePrivate, fast and funded, with regulators who favour controlled infrastructure.
6State SNAP and benefits agencies3.55Lead (slow)The biggest prize, but RFP-driven: Tier B in the sprint, Tier A later.
7Tribal governments In the sprint3.50NicheSovereignty is literal here; relationship-led, on a long horizon.
8Large counties over 100k In the sprint3.45ScaleHas a CIO and a data centre, and is the natural host for towns under 50k.

Channel and host, not buyers

  • Public power utilitiesKnows every building in town; the natural partner for demand-response payback.
  • Regional MSPs and integratorsResells and runs infrastructure for others; scored in the channel map, not as a buyer.
  • Utilities, telcos and district heatHosts and channel partners, not end customers. Preformed Line Products (PLP) is a channel candidate; nothing is signed.

Kept off campaigns

  • Small towns under 50kBuys through a county or council of governments, which buys once for several towns.
  • Law enforcementAI in policing raises the one objection that cannot be answered; serve it only inside a city or county deal.
  • School districtsAI plus children; can still come in as part of a city or county deal.
  • Defense and national securityExcluded: likely blocked by hardware-provenance rules.

Scores, ranks and roles: Allodial-Funding-Scenarios-Model_rev8.xlsx, Segments. Reasons: 01-Segment-Atlas_rev1.md.

The 90-day campaign

$500k in one quarter, across 10 campaigns.

Deployed on day one of a 90-day window, 4 Jan 2027 to 4 Apr 2027, with no mid-course changes. Public sector takes 81% of spend, and county human services in the 10 county-run SNAP states takes 47%. Money flows to whichever campaign's next $1,000 buys the most letters, under a founder-capacity limit and diminishing returns.

The ten campaigns of the $500k sprint
CampaignSegmentChannelSpendWeighted LOIsTier A LOIs
K05 County HHS: independent reps (former HHS directors)County human services, 10 county-run SNAP statesIndependent reps$89,0002.81.7
K01 R1/R2 research computing: founder outbound to named directorsResearch universities (R1 and R2)Founder outbound$82,0005.93.0
K11 Credit unions: founder outbound plus LinkedIn to 748 over $500MCredit unions over $500MFounder outbound$67,0003.51.7
K04 County HHS (10 SNAP states): founder outbound with a SNAP cost-shift briefCounty human services, 10 county-run SNAP statesFounder outbound$62,0002.91.2
K03 County HHS (10 SNAP states): state association sponsorshipsCounty human services, 10 county-run SNAP statesState associations$50,0002.21.1
K02 R1/R2: R&E network presence plus grant co-writingResearch universities (R1 and R2)R&E networks and grants$45,0002.41.4
K06 Counties: NACo Legislative Conference (19-23 Feb 2027)CountiesNational conference$35,0001.00.4
K10 Credit unions: America's Credit Unions GAC (28 Feb-4 Mar 2027) plus state leaguesCredit unions over $500MNational conference$30,0001.10.5
K08 Cities 50k+: LinkedIn matched audiences to CIOs and city managersCities over 50kLinkedIn paid$20,0000.40.2
K18 Tribal governments: relationship programme through tribal technology associationsTribal governmentsIndependent reps$20,0000.30.1
Total, ten campaigns6 segments$500,00022.4f11.3f

A Tier A letter names a site, a box count, the budget line and a signer with budget authority. Weighted LOIs count Tier A at 1.0 and Tier B at 0.4, inside the window.

The range: about 10 Tier A letters, 8 at the pessimistic quartile

Letters of intent from the $500k sprint, 5,000 simulated runsWeighted LOIs: P10 14.2, P25 16.8, P50 20.2, P75 23.8, P90 27. Tier A LOIs: P10 6, P25 8, P50 10, P75 13, P90 15.05101520253035Weighted LOIs20.214.227Tier A LOIs10615

5,000 simulated runsf. Box: P25 to P75. Whiskers: P10 to P90. Bar: P50. One common market-reception factor means that if the pitch misses, it misses everywhere at once.

Events inside the window

  • 19 to 23 Feb 2027NACo Legislative ConferenceWashington DC · About 2,000 county officials · campaign K06In the window
  • 28 Feb to 4 Mar 2027America's Credit Unions GACWashington DC · Credit union leadership · campaign K10In the window
  • 15 to 17 Mar 2027NLC Congressional City ConferenceWashington DC · City leadersIn the window
  • 5 to 8 Apr 2027HIMSS27Chicago · Health systems; one day after the window closesOutside

Before any close: Q4 2026

  1. 01Start reseller onboarding with a cooperative-contract holder, so a county can buy without an RFP.
  2. 02Recruit two or three independent reps on retainer-plus-commission terms, ready to start in January.
  3. 03Build the named account lists: 700 county human services agencies, 326 research computing directors, 748 credit unions.
  4. 04Check the winter meeting dates of the county associations and human services director groups in the 10 county-run SNAP states.

Campaigns and range: Allodial-Funding-Scenarios-Model_rev8.xlsx, Allocation and MonteCarlo. Events and pre-sprint work: 02-Channel-Map_rev1.md.

What delivery costs

The first customer is expensive; the twentieth is cheap.

24 times the customers costs 6.3 times as much to deliver. Variable delivery cost per customer falls 35% as the custom-app learning curve matures and states are reused, and $570k of every 24-month bill is the fixed platform.

Unit costs at mid market rates

Delivery unit costs at mid market rates
DriverUnit costWhat is in it
Per active prospect, per month$1,580ePre-sales engineering, security forms, legal, proposals
Per closed deal, one-time$89,950eFirst deal; the custom app is most of it and falls on a learning curve
Per new site, one-time$14,840eSurvey, electrical and hydronic tie-in, PM, training
Per box installed, one-time$3,170eCircuit, hydronic connection, commissioning
Per installed box, per month$475e24/7 monitoring and SRE
Per active customer, per month$2,210eCustomer success, app maintenance, compliance, legal
Per new state, one-time$15,100eProcurement-law review, contract template, local subcontractors
Fixed, per month$23,750eLegal retainer, finance, insurance, SOC 2, SRE base

Five staffing benchmarks

Five staffing benchmarks over 24 months
Scenario, 24 monthsCustomersBoxesSitesStatesDelivery costPeak FTEsVariable cost per customer
S1 One small town1311$889ke2.5$319k
S2 Three customers in one state3931$1.37Me2.8$265k
S3 Eight customers, three states, one 12-site county833193$2.51Me10.5$243k
S4 Fifteen customers, mixed segments, six states, one 8-site city1550226$3.66Me10.5$206k
S5 Twenty-four customers nationwide, twelve states, a 24-site city and a 3-hospital system24964912$5.59Me23.6$209k

Headcount follows sites, not customers: S3 needs more field staff at its peak than S4 because of one 12-site county.

Peak contractor FTEs by role and scenario
Peak contractor FTEs by roleS1S2S3S4S5
Legal0.40.40.50.50.6
Solutions / field engineer0.50.62.92.76.3
App developer0.90.91.61.62.1
DevOps / SRE0.20.20.50.61.0
Project manager0.40.41.61.43.6
Electrician0.30.31.91.33.8
Hydronic contractor0.30.32.41.64.8
Security / compliance0.20.30.50.81.1
Proposal / grant writer0.10.20.30.60.9
Customer success0.10.10.30.60.9

Rules of thumb: 1, 5 or 10 new customers a month

Month
Monthly budget for 1, 5 and 10 new customers a month
Each month1 new a month5 new a month10 new a month
Delivery opex$165k$675k$1.28M
Acquisition (CAC)$100k$500k$1.00M
Total opex$265k$1.18M$2.28M
Hardware paid out($211k)($1.05M)($2.11M)
Hardware collected, net of channel cost$316k$1.58M$3.16M
Service revenue$34k$169k$338k
Net monthly cash($126k)($480k)($891k)
Hardware working capital tied up$1.05M$5.27M$10.5M

Steady intake, 3 boxes and 1 site per customer, full retention. Hardware is working capital, not spend: 5 months pass between ordering boxes and collecting payment, so each new customer a month ties up about $1.05M.

Monthly opex ≈ $23.8k + k × ($24k deal + app on the curve + $24.4k site and installs + $31.6k pipeline + $100k CAC) + $2.2k × customers + $475 × installed boxes + $15.1k × new states

All figures: Allodial-Funding-Scenarios-Model_rev8.xlsx, Workload, Scenarios and RulesOfThumb. Method: 04 and 05, with the net-cash errata in 07.

What makes a customer profitable

Quote implementation at $90k; hold $75k as the floor.

Once reseller margin and rep commission are counted, a steady-state customer loses about ($88k)e up front at today's pricing, and service only breaks even: $45k a year against $43.6k of cost, a margin of $1,380. Growth then consumes cash in proportion to its speed.

Unit economics of one steady-state customerOne steady-state customer, one-time: Hardware gross profit +$140.4k; Delivery ($61.5k); Pipeline carrying cost ($31.6k); Acquisition (CAC) ($100.0k); Channel cost ($35.1k); One-time result ($87.8k); With a $90k fee +$2.2k.$0Hardware gross profit3 boxes+$140.4kDeliverydeal, app, site, installs($61.5k)Pipeline carrying cost20 prospects for a month($31.6k)Acquisition (CAC)marketing and sales($100.0k)Channel costreseller margin, rep commission($35.1k)One-time resultimplementation fee $0($87.8k)With a $90k feethe recommended quote+$2.2kUnit economics of one steady-state customerOne steady-state customer, one-time: Hardware gross profit +$140.4k; Delivery ($61.5k); Pipeline carrying cost ($31.6k); Acquisition (CAC) ($100.0k); Channel cost ($35.1k); One-time result ($87.8k); With a $90k fee +$2.2k.$0Hardware gross profit3 boxes+$140.4kDeliverydeal, app, site, installs($61.5k)Pipeline carrying cost20 prospects for a month($31.6k)Acquisition (CAC)marketing and sales($100.0k)Channel costreseller margin, rep commission($35.1k)One-time resultimplementation fee $0($87.8k)With a $90k feethe recommended quote+$2.2k

The fee options

Implementation fee options
OptionOne-time result per customer
Today: no implementation fee, $100k CAC($88k)
$75k implementation fee($13k)
$90k implementation fee$2k
$75k fee, CAC down to $60k after references$27k

$90k

Quote implementation as a line item, about 26% of a 3-box order. Break-even is $88k.

$75k

The negotiating floor. Plan for CAC to fall toward $60k once reference sites exist.

Values: Allodial-Funding-Scenarios-Model_rev8.xlsx, RulesOfThumb, unit economics. Options and recommendation: Allodial-Investment-Options_rev2.md.

What moves the answer

The rate card and team size move the cash; CAC and hardware cost move the margin.

Each input was pushed to a plausible bad and good value, one at a time, and the model recalculated. The two biggest cash levers are negotiable before the raise. The two biggest margin levers need real-world data.

Funding need for the $7.5M plan, 36 months

Funding need for the $7.5M plan over 36 months: what moves itBase $7.79M at a $75k implementation fee. Contractor rate case: High gives $9.35M, Low gives $6.85M; Core team cost per FTE: +20% gives $8.45M, -20% gives $7.12M; Emberholt COGS: +$15k gives $8.28M, -$5k gives $7.62M; Channel cost: 15% gives $7.98M, 5% gives $7.59M; First-deal app hours: 600 gives $7.94M, 200 gives $7.63M; Per-customer app maintenance: 9h gives $7.85M, 3h a month gives $7.72M; Platform fee: $18k gives $7.85M, $30k gives $7.72M; Months to first deal: 12 gives $7.76M, 6 gives $7.83M.Base $7.79MContractor rate caseHigh / Low$9.35M$6.85MCore team cost per FTE+20% / -20%$8.45M$7.12MEmberholt COGS+$15k / -$5k$8.28M$7.62MChannel cost15% / 5%$7.98M$7.59MFirst-deal app hours600 / 200$7.94M$7.63MPer-customer app maintenance9h / 3h a month$7.85M$7.72MPlatform fee$18k / $30k$7.85M$7.72MMonths to first deal12 / 6$7.76M$7.83MFunding need for the $7.5M plan over 36 months: what moves itBase $7.79M at a $75k implementation fee. Contractor rate case: High gives $9.35M, Low gives $6.85M; Core team cost per FTE: +20% gives $8.45M, -20% gives $7.12M; Emberholt COGS: +$15k gives $8.28M, -$5k gives $7.62M; Channel cost: 15% gives $7.98M, 5% gives $7.59M; First-deal app hours: 600 gives $7.94M, 200 gives $7.63M; Per-customer app maintenance: 9h gives $7.85M, 3h a month gives $7.72M; Platform fee: $18k gives $7.85M, $30k gives $7.72M; Months to first deal: 12 gives $7.76M, 6 gives $7.83M.Base $7.79MContractor rate caseHigh / Low$9.35M$6.85MCore team cost per FTE+20% / -20%$8.45M$7.12MEmberholt COGS+$15k / -$5k$8.28M$7.62MChannel cost15% / 5%$7.98M$7.59MFirst-deal app hours600 / 200$7.94M$7.63MPer-customer app maintenance9h / 3h a month$7.85M$7.72MPlatform fee$18k / $30k$7.85M$7.72MMonths to first deal12 / 6$7.76M$7.83M

Base $7.79M at a $75k implementation fee. Later first deals slightly lower the 36-month need because less hardware is bought inside the window, but they delay every proof point.

One-time result per customer

One-time result per customer: what moves itBase ($88k) at a $0 implementation fee. CAC: $150k gives ($138k), $60k gives ($48k); Emberholt COGS: +$15k platform line gives ($133k), -$5k gives ($73k); Contractor rate case: High gives ($125k), Low gives ($67k); Channel cost: 15% gives ($105k), 5% gives ($70k).Base ($88k)CAC$150k / $60k($138k)($48k)Emberholt COGS+$15k platform line / -$5k($133k)($73k)Contractor rate caseHigh / Low($125k)($67k)Channel cost15% / 5%($105k)($70k)One-time result per customer: what moves itBase ($88k) at a $0 implementation fee. CAC: $150k gives ($138k), $60k gives ($48k); Emberholt COGS: +$15k platform line gives ($133k), -$5k gives ($73k); Contractor rate case: High gives ($125k), Low gives ($67k); Channel cost: 15% gives ($105k), 5% gives ($70k).Base ($88k)CAC$150k / $60k($138k)($48k)Emberholt COGS+$15k platform line / -$5k($133k)($73k)Contractor rate caseHigh / Low($125k)($67k)Channel cost15% / 5%($105k)($70k)

Test with real money first

  1. 01Conversion rates. A $25k to $50k pre-raise test on the three campaigns that carry the sprint: research computing outbound (K01), county human services outbound (K04) and one contracted rep (K05). Settles the LOI forecast within one quarter.
  2. 02Emberholt's real cost. Send the RFQ for the platform, enclosure and heat-rejection path. Moves every customer by up to $60k.
  3. 03Three contractor quotes. An installation subcontractor in one target state, a managed SRE and 24/7 monitoring firm, and a compliance firm for SOC 2. The rate case alone swings the $7.5M plan by $2.5M.
  4. 04The implementation fee. Quote implementation as a line item in every LOI conversation and record the reaction. Break-even is about $88k; the question is whether buyers accept it or CAC must fall instead.
  5. 05Channel terms. Get the actual margin from one cooperative-contract reseller and the commission from one rep. Together about 10% of hardware in the model.

Sensitivities and test list: 07-Red-Team_rev1.md, sections 3 and 5.

Still open

30 assumptions are still proposals.

Every row is yellow in the model: proposed, or a placeholder a later step replaces. Change one on the Assumptions tab and every tab that depends on it recomputes. Valuation is deliberately not stated; the second close is priced on the letters of intent.

Assumptions still proposed or placeholder
IDAssumptionCurrent valueStatus
A8Sprint start date (planning)4 Jan 2027Proposed
D2Deposit at order, public-sector customer0%Proposed
D3Deposit at order, private customer30%Proposed
D4Payment terms after acceptance (days)45 daysProposed
D5Order to delivery lead time (weeks)12 weeksProposed
E1Tier A weight: signed, names site, box count, budget source, signer with budget authority1Proposed
E2Tier B weight: signed non-binding letter of interest0.4Proposed
E3Tier C weight: qualified meeting or pilot request, unsigned0Proposed
E4Tier A to paying customer conversion30%Placeholder
E5Tier B to paying customer conversion8%Placeholder
E7LOI to purchase order, private (months)4 monthsPlaceholder
F1Maximum share of sprint budget in one campaign25%Proposed
F2Minimum distinct segments across the 10 campaigns3 segmentsProposed
F3Efficiency floor: each campaign's LOI/$ as share of portfolio average35%Proposed
F4Outcome optimisedP25 of weighted LOIsProposed
F5Monte Carlo runs5000 runsProposed
F6Maximum campaigns aimed at private segments (credit unions, manufacturers)2 campaignsProposed
G1Who sells during the sprintFounders + 1 contract AEProposed
G2Excluded segmentsDefense: opportunistic onlyProposed
G4Planning horizon for staffing and rules of thumb (months)24 monthsProposed
G5Internal sales capacity: qualified conversations founders plus 1 contract AE can run in 13 weeks250 conversationsProposed
G6Rep-led campaigns (reps carry their own conversations)K05, K15, K18Proposed
H1Proposed platform fee per customer per year$24,000Proposed
H2Proposed service fee per box per year$7,000Proposed
H3Use proposed pricing in Steps 5 and 6? (Yes / No)YesProposed
H4Implementation fee per new customer (one-time professional services)$0Proposed
H5Channel cost: reseller margin on cooperative-contract sales plus rep commission, as a share of hardware revenue10%Proposed
H6Contract AE loaded cost per month$15,000Proposed
H7Months from raise close to first scenario deal (certification done, sprint-sourced POs arriving)8 monthsProposed
H8Sprint pipeline carried: prospects x months (sprint LOIs kept warm before they convert or drop)35 prospectsProposed

Source: Allodial-Funding-Scenarios-Model_rev8.xlsx, Assumptions, status P or PH.

Method and sources

One model, eight steps, and the decision.

Every figure on this page is read from the model workbook when the page is built, so a change on its Assumptions tab re-flows here on the next build.

  1. 00Frame and assumptions Fixed the reference customer (3 Emberholt boxes) and defined what counts as a Tier A letter.
  2. 01Customer segment atlas Profiled 21 US segments and ranked them by fit and by 90-day Tier A likelihood.
  3. 02Channel map Priced 16 channels and 22 campaign candidates, and set the in-window events and pre-sprint work.
  4. 03The $500k campaign portfolio Chose ten campaigns under diminishing returns and founder capacity, then ran 5,000 simulations.
  5. 04Delivery workload and rate card Built unit costs per prospect, deal, site, box, customer and state at researched US rates.
  6. 05Staffing and rules of thumb Ran five staffing benchmarks over 24 months and derived budgets for 1, 5 and 10 new customers a month.
  7. 06Investment options ladder Laid out what $2M, $6M and $20M each buy over 36 months, then right-sized them.
  8. 07Red team Added sales costs and realistic timing, stress-tested every major input, and listed what to test first.
  9. 08The ask Settled $7.5M in two closes, with the gate between them.

Notes

  1. fForecast. Letter-of-intent counts come from 5,000 simulated runs of the campaign portfolio; "8 to 10 signed letters" is the 25th to 50th percentile of those runs. Every conversion rate is an estimate until the pre-raise test measures it.
  2. rRounded. Line items are rounded to $0.01M, so the second close's items show $3.49M against $3.50M unrounded. No item is missing.
  3. eEstimate. A planning figure from the model at mid US market rates, with no implementation fee unless stated.

Sources